编研“中国西部开发综合安全减灾规划战略”的建议

中国西部大开发作为历史性的壮举 ,重在要有创新思路及观念的大转变。安全减灾作为一种国策及保障手段 ,必须是西部开发的先决条件 ,如果忽略了安全减灾规划战略的布署和开发行动 ,必然迟早要招致悲惨的后果。笔者提出此建议 ,旨在为中国西部开发探索一条生态、安全、减灾和谐发展之路 ,意在促进西部开发健康而有序的可持续发展。     

21世纪可持续发展面临的七大挑战

可持续发展的过程是不断迎接挑战的过程,21世纪人类将面临人地矛盾的挑战、利用冲突对人类共同目标的挑战、竞争对公平的挑战、发展不平衡对区域均衡目标的挑战、多样性两重性矛盾和突变与灾变的挑战。     

以北运河（北京段）为例模拟评估北京市“水十条”水质改善效果

基于MIKE11构建北运河(北京段)一维水质模型,以氨氮、COD为目标污染物,建立污染源与水质响应关系。以2013年为基准年,考虑不同人口疏解情景预测2020年北运河(北京段)流域人口,并结合北京市"水十条"设置减排情景方案,对2020年水质改善效果进行量化评估。模拟结果表明:北京市"水十条"可实现显著的水质改善效果,到2020年,在中人口疏解方案下,北运河氨氮、COD平均质量浓度相比2013年分别下降40.8%~77.7%、39.3%~59.7%。COD质量浓度可稳定达标,氨氮质量浓度离达标还有一定差距,但日浓度可稳定在8mg/L以下,基本消除了黑臭水体。     

Imagined citizens and participation: Local Agenda 21 in two communities in Sweden and Austria

Abstract

Local Agenda 21 (LA21), which has its roots in the UN Conference on Environment and Development held in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, aims at fostering processes of sustainable development on a local level. In this article, we compare the LA21 processes of two cities, Helsingborg in Sweden and Vienna in Austria, to seek insight into the varying implementation approaches of common international political commitments. Our focus of analysis is on the social organisation of the two processes, the way local residents are integrated into LA21 work, and especially the political images of citizens—which we call ‘imagined citizens’—that different actor groups hold. The results of the study illustrate two almost diametrically opposed organisational forms of local sustainability governance, the Swedish process relying on a more expert-led, technocratic model of implementation and the Austrian process strongly building on deliberative forms of citizen participation.     

Accuracy of Down syndrome risks produced in a first-trimester screening programme incorporating fetal nuchal translucency thickness and maternal serum biochemistry

Over the past three years approximately 12 000 women have been screened in the first trimester through our OSCAR programme, which utilizes fetal NT and maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A. During this time 30 cases of Down syndrome were identified either prenatally or postnatally. Using an established procedure the accuracy of predicted risk for Down syndrome was assessed in a population of 30 cases of Down syndrome and 11 758 unaffected pregnancies. The correlation between predicted risk and prevalence of Down syndrome was very high (r=0.9995). It is concluded that risks produced by the Fetal Medicine Foundation combined risk algorithm agree very closely with Down syndrome prevalence and can be used with confidence when counselling women of their risk. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.